HOMABAY, Kenya –Over the past few weeks, I have been keen on following the unfolding by-election campaigns across the country. From Magarini to Bomachoge Borabu, from Banissa to Rongai, and all the way to Kasipul Kabondo.
These political contests are happening under a delicate political atmosphere shaped in the final seventeen months of Raila Odinga’s life, namely, the now at high risk broad-based government, a consequence of silent bargaining between Raila and Ruto, and the uneasy calm that followed the Gen Z uprising.
However, among all these races, the most politically consequential, at least to me, is the Kasipul by-election. This is because its dynamics speak directly to the unfinished political architecture that Raila left behind and the emerging struggles that now define Luo politics. The Jo-Luo, the ‘tribe’ whose politico-economic elite were (until 17th October 2025) the closest to all the elements of Kenya’s national power.
Below, I present three main arguments and/or predictions regarding this race.
First, the real actors in the Kasipul contest are not the visible candidates on the ballot but the government through UDA on one hand and the once most consequential party in Kenya, ODM, on the other.
Long before the death of Ong’ondo Were, Kasipul was already fractured between these two forces. ODM’s dominance, and often its rough handling of opponents through Ongondo’s iron fist style, and counter-reactions from UDA’s grassroots soldiers, had already set the stage for a deep political divide.
While Raila and Ruto had agreed to field ODM and UDA candidates only in their strongholds, and Kasipul naturally fell under ODM, as I have argued before, that arrangement was never ideological but a temporary stabilisation pact after the Gen Z revolt.
With Raila and Ong’ondo both gone, and Boyd Were stepping into a contest that no longer benefits from the pre-existing Raila–Ruto détente, those understandings have dissolved. They are now nothing more than water under the bridge, and Kasipul is back to the status quo. Government party operatives are fighting against the dying ODM, through the candidates.
Second, the Kasipul by-election will be the first real test of the broad-based government in the post-Raila, or broadly post-Odingaism era. Kenyans have heard endless whispers of a UDA–ODM alliance, even suggestions that ODM could donate the Deputy President position in 2027. But from where I sit, that dream died the very day Raila died.
The Kasipul race, where Boyd is pitted against Philip Aroko, Robert Riaga, and other opponents, will mark the point where the political curve between ODM and UDA begins its sharp downward slope. After this contest, I doubt anyone will confidently speak about a future ODM–UDA partnership with the same conviction, especially if my prediction, as I lay out in my final argument below, becomes a prophecy fulfilled.
Finally, ODM has a strong chance of winning the seat, but it will not come easily. Not through the vote. ODM has successfully tapped into raw emotions, framing the election as a test of loyalty to Raila’s memory. Watching and making sense of campaign strategies; the long campaign trail that serves as a show of political muscle, the extreme versions of the late Senator Otieno Kajwang’s dramatization and humuor, the emotionalization, even the sexualized theatrics that have long characterized our Luo politics, I see an electorate cornered into a corridor of only one political choice; a continuation of the euphoric and sycophantic voting patterns that defined Odingaism.
But alongside this, I also see the government machinery, particularly through influential and invisible figures particularly within the Interior Ministry, preparing to push this race beyond the ballot. Rigging is not a far-fetched possibility. And when you consider that the real duel is not between Boyd Were and Philip Aroko, but between PS Raymond Omollo and Governor Gladys Wanga, then the stakes become even clearer
In this post-Odinga moment, the Luo Nation is grappling with what I have called elsewhere an “unfilled leadership vacuum”. Wanga, openly, and Omollo, quietly and strategically, are battling for dominance in Homa Bay and for control of Luo representation at the national table.
That battle was open and fierce before Ru-RAO handshake, but accidentally ‘faded’ as Raila and Ruto “managed” them by the promise of a bigger future (a future that Gladys misinterpreted as deputy president for herself).
That ‘management’ was ended effectively on the evening of 17th October 2025 with Raila’s interment. Consequently, Kasipul has now become the first open battlefield of that emerging succession war. The by-election is a key tool in this war.
The long and short of it is this; whatever the outcome, Kasipul will not just elect an MP to fill the vacuum created by Ogondo’s death. This by-election will also reveal where Luo politics is heading in a future without Raila Odinga.
Odhiambo A. Kasera is a Political Scientist and Adjunct Lecturer at Maseno, Rongo and the University of Kabianga.
