Kenya’s electricity demand is projected to grow much faster between 2030 and 2040 than between 2020 and 2030, reaching around five times its 2020 level by 2040, Energy Modelling and Policy Expert at the International Energy Agency (IEA), Dr Mine Isik, has said.
Dr Isik was speaking during a joint AFREC-IEA webinar held recently on the topic “Towards a reliable and energy-efficient electricity grid system in Africa.”
According to Dr Isik, the surge will be driven by a steady rise in urban population, which is set to overtake the rural population after 2030, with electricity demand continuing to rise in buildings and growing even faster in transport and industry.
She noted that transport demand will rise from almost zero today to around 15 TWh in 2040, while industrial demand will more than quadruple over the same period.
Dr Isik said Africa is the region with the fastest projected growth in both population and GDP to 2050, with average annual growth of 1.9% and 4.0% respectively. While electricity generation and demand in Africa lagged behind the global average between 2010 and 2023, she said both are expected to grow faster than the global average to 2050.
She explained that between 2010 and 2023, global electricity generation grew at 2.6% and demand at 2.7%, compared to 2.2% and 2.0% for Africa. However, between 2024 and 2050, global growth will slow to 2.4% and 2.3% respectively, while Africa’s will accelerate to 3.9% for generation and 4.2% for demand.
On generation trends, Dr Isik observed that over the past decade, electricity generation has grown steadily in Kenya, Ghana, Uganda and Côte d’Ivoire, while South Africa, by far the continent’s largest system, has seen a slight decline.
The expert warned that Africa’s power needs require stronger and more efficient grids, noting that high reliance on fossil fuels and inefficient grids undermine the clean energy transition. She said in 2023, around 42% of electricity generation was from natural gas and 25% from coal, while many systems face high network losses, frequent outages and limited access.
Dr Isik said grid losses in selected Sub-Saharan countries exceed those in South Africa. She pointed out that Kenya’s grid losses are about twice those of South Africa, even though its power system is only around one-tenth the size, underscoring the need to pair rising generation with strong loss-reduction policies.
According to Dr Isik, bringing Kenya’s grid losses of over 24% down to South Africa’s level of around 11% could save roughly as much electricity as Kenya’s annual residential demand of about 2.8 TWh.
On demand for cooling, she said Kenya is expected to experience many more very hot days, rising from around 200 days per year today to 250-300 days by 2100, pushing electricity demand for air conditioners to surge ten-fold by 2040, driven mainly by the services sector.
Dr Isik also warned that electrical outages bring significant economic losses, noting that in Sub-Saharan Africa outages cause an average 8% loss in sales, affecting 74% of firms with outages lasting around 5.6 hours. Kenya experiences fewer outages than the regional average, she said, but firms still lose about 5% of annual sales.
She added that grid-related technical failures alone caused at least USD 1,000 billion in economic losses worldwide in 2021, with firms in Sub-Saharan Africa forced to spend around 44% of total electricity spending on backup options like diesel generators.
Dr Isik said that by 2040, increased electrification and grid improvements in Kenya could avoid around USD 1.66 billion in industrial losses and deliver about USD 0.33 billion in savings for the power sector.
On investment, she stated that by 2040, about USD 20 billion will need to be invested in grids to meet an increase of around 56 TWh in electricity demand in Kenya, noting that policy efforts to reduce losses and strengthen reliability would help ease the financing burden.
She added that the average cost per kilometre of new grid is lowest in West Africa at about USD 0.6 million, compared to roughly USD 0.8 million in East Africa and about USD 1.2 million in Southern Africa.
Highlighting Kenya’s latest developments, Dr Isik cited increased data-driven decision-making through the IEA’s geospatial mapping project, Kenya Power’s Distribution Master Plan, a smart metering programme targeting 55,000 SMEs, the Last Mile Connectivity Project in 32 counties, and plans to set up 136 solar mini-grids.
She also cited an improved regulatory framework under the Energy Act 2019, the Kenya National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy 2020, and the proposed Sh28 billion Treasury grant for national grid upgrade.
Dr Isik concluded that Sub-Saharan countries would benefit from more reliable and energy-efficient systems, calling for a short-term focus on data-driven planning, stronger grid operations and tackling theft, and long-term measures including improved regulation, demand-side efficiency and optimised rural electrification.
