KISUMU, 31st October 2026 – Like the Sword of Damocles, that is the question piercing the minds of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party top brass, legislators and fanatic supporters as the party finds itself between a rock and a hard place in its quest to deepen coalition ties with the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ahead of the 10th August 2027 general election.
The latest political furore was ignited by Interior Security and National Administration Principal Secretary Dr Raymond Omollo, who, in a span of a week, fired a second salvo, maintaining that the 20-year-old party should not sign a pre-election agreement with President William Ruto-led UDA.
“The Nyanza region is prepared to support Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027 without imposing conditions, but it will be anchored on his exemplary performance on service delivery, rather than negotiations or conditions imposed by regional political leaders,” Dr Omollo declared.
Speaking on Friday in Kisumu East Constituency during the commissioning of Manyatta Police Station, a project funded through the National Government Constituencies Development Fund (NG-CDF), Dr Omollo pointed to numerous multi-billion-shilling transformative development projects undertaken by the four-year-old Kenya Kwanza administration.
“The government has demonstrated its commitment to equitable development by implementing projects in a region that largely didn’t support President Ruto during the 2022 General Election,” he said.
According to the PS, the administration’s development record should inform political conversations ahead of the next electoral cycle, rather than demands for political concessions.
“We did not put pressure on him to build our roads, hire our teachers, resolve or streamline our health care system. He has done it because that is what good leadership entails,” he said.
He cited ongoing and completed infrastructure projects, road construction, teacher and police recruitments and efforts to improve the healthcare system as evidence of the government’s development agenda in the region. He further called for peaceful political competition, imploring contestants and their fan bases to be tolerant and exercise restraint.
The Proponents
His remarks follow ODM’s spirited demand for minimums in any pact, including staking a claim for the Deputy President slot currently occupied by Prof Kithure Kindiki, a 50-50 power share in the next Cabinet, and, by extension, ambassadorial, state corporation and other government appointments.
The proponents of pre-election pact signing include ODM Chairperson Gladys Wanga, National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed, and Secretary-General Catherine Omanyo.
Omanyo avers that a legally binding and written agreement needs to be deposited with the Office of the Registrar of Political Parties (ORPP), terming an undocumented “come-we-stay” marriage as highly dangerous.
In a more poignant position made during a public gathering in Siaya in February 2026, ODM Party Leader Dr Oburu Oginga expressed the party’s wish to stay in the broad-based government until 2032, and vowed to push for structured negotiation with the ruling UDA.
With his popular slogan of ‘We Want Power,’ the Siaya Senator was quoted as saying: “We entered this government through the window, but the one that is coming (in 2027), we will officially enter through the door by negotiating and ensure that we have more power than we presently have.”
Dr Oburu also expressly indicated that the party is keen on negotiating for plum government posts, including that of the Second-in-Command, as he reminded the current office holders not to daydream by thinking that it is solely reserved for them.
“The DP post is one of the key posts we are going for, so whoever is holding it should be ready to justify to us why we should not grab it. So, whether we will be rubbing shoulders with some politicians whom we have caught on the wrong side, we must know that it won’t be our worry,” he said.
In his latest video response aired to supporters attending Raila odinga first anniversary held at the Jacaranda grounds in Nairobi on 31st October,2026, Dr Oburu emphasised that the party will not enter into an electoral agreement without negotiations and clearly defined structures.
This includes the full implementation of NADCO’s 10-point agenda in toto, terming it a non-negotiable foundation of their political rapprochement with UDA.
On Wednesday, October 28, ODM grassroots mobilizers and Bunge La Mwananchi from parts of Kisumu also convened a press conference to drum up support for the structured agreement between the two parties, warning that they “can’t go into a coalition without a well-documented pre-election pact.”
However, the latest entrant to join the ‘no-deal-signing’ debate is Gem MP Elisha Odhiambo, who unequivocally threw his weight behind Dr Omollo, emphasizing that Ruto’s track record speaks for itself not only in Nyanza but across the country. He clarified that the current political arrangement with Ruto was not founded on an MoU, yet the broad-based government has seen several leaders from the region appointed to senior positions.
“I share 100% the sentiments of the Super PS Dr Omollo that there should be no agreement signing. Relationships are built on kinship and trust. We didn’t sign an agreement with President Ruto, but he gave us Mbadi (Treasury), Wandayi (Energy), Oduor (AG), and PS Omollo, among others,” he said during a mega funds drive in support of Kondele United Traders and Bus Park CBO at Kenya Medical Training College (KMTC) Grounds in Kondele.
Trust and mutual understanding, Elisha further emphasized, are more important than Memoranda of Understanding, recalling that previous MoUs between Raila Odinga and former Presidents Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta failed to live up to their billing, despite high expectations.
“Let us build our party, numbers and secure more parliamentary seats in the 2027 general polls,” Elisha advised.
On their part, Kisumu County Deputy Governor Dr Mathews Owili, Dr Joshua Oron (Kisumu Central), Jared Okello (Nyando), and Onyango K’Oyoo (Muhoroni) urged residents to re-elect the Head of State to serve until 2032 for more development in the region.
They observed that Dr Ruto has been undertaking projects without looking at a community’s political affiliation, ethnic background, religious beliefs, colour or creed.
With ever-growing fears that the triumvirate of ODM sons, including Siaya Governor James Orengo, Babu Owino (Embakasi East), and Edwin Sifuna (Nairobi Senator), ‘have shaken or are about to run away with a huge chunk of ODM strongholds,’ Ruto’s allies are increasingly sceptical that the Oburu-led ODM might not marshal significant votes for his ‘tutam’ bid; thus, the new push for goodwill rather than deal signing.
The Legal Hurdle
It is this political Tower of Babel that now collides with the law. Under Section 10 of the Political Parties Act, 2011, as amended in 2022, any coalition must be governed by a written agreement deposited with the Registrar of Political Parties.
The law is explicit: a coalition agreement entered into before an election shall be deposited with the Registrar at least three months before that election, and at least 120 days before the election where the parties seek to register as a Coalition Political Party.
A post-election agreement must be deposited within 21 days of signing. The agreement must also set out the matters specified in the Third Schedule – including power-sharing formula, governance structure, and dispute resolution mechanism.
Without a deposit, the pact remains a gentlemen’s agreement, unenforceable before the Political Parties Disputes Tribunal (PPDT), the exact pitfall that haunted the Raila-Kibaki 2002 MoU and the 2018 handshake that Elisha cited.
Many pundits are left wondering whether these new developments will usurp the roles assigned to the joint committee unveiled during both parties’ Naivasha retreat to chart the way forward against the ‘United Opposition.’
On October 28, 2026, the committee working on a joint campaign manifesto for ODM and UDA issued their progress report and maintained that it is working tirelessly to deliver ahead of the August 2027 elections.
Another thorny issue that will be sharply prickly in the upcoming election is zoning and safeguarding traditional ODM bastions,as the party stalwarts insists, with UDA rooting for open party nominations and contests within the pact.
Faced with the dicey position, analysts are keenly watching how ODM and UDA will delicately balance the politics of pact-signing against the statutory deadline that demands any pre-2027 coalition deal must be in the ORPP vault by July 2027.
